COHU closed at $41.26 on April 17, up 4.8% on the day, 10.5% over the week, and 35.46% over the past month. The stock is extended, but the move still tracks the same setup: Cohu sells semiconductor test-and-handler equipment, and the market is now paying for a cleaner recovery in chip sorting and validation demand.
Hard data
- Market cap: $3.16 billion
- Enterprise value: $2.99 billion
- Revenue: $452.96 million
- Gross margin: 45.4%
- Next revenue growth: 25.7%
- EV/revenue: 6.6x
- As of 2026-04-17 close: $41.26
- 1-day move: +4.8%
- 1-week move: +10.5%
- 1-month move: +35.46%
- Market tone: Greed (Fear & Greed Index 74)
Thesis
Cohu’s chokepoint is semiconductor test and handling: the company sells the tools that move, test, and bin chips before shipment, so orders turn when device makers raise output or increase test intensity. The stock already prices a solid cyclical recovery at 6.6x enterprise value to revenue, but consensus may still be too conservative on how long that demand can stay firm and how much operating leverage shows up if gross margin holds near 45% while revenue keeps compounding. The best bear case is that this is still a cycle trade, not a durable re-rate, yet the next leg can still work if the upcycle broadens beyond a narrow set of sockets and carries through the next several quarters.
Bear case
The cleanest pushback is that Cohu is still exposed to capex timing, and the last 35% month can leave the stock priced for no stumble. If customer spending pauses, if the AI-related test rebound stays narrow, or if mix slips, the multiple is no longer cheap enough to cushion an earnings miss. In that case, the market will treat the move as a front-loaded cyclical bounce rather than the start of a longer rerating.
Invalidation
The setup breaks if next-quarter revenue growth falls materially below the current 25.7% path, gross margin slips back toward the low-40% range, or management signals that order momentum is not extending into the next two quarters.
Trade framing
With the stock extended after a sharp monthly run, the better entry is usually a pullback rather than chasing strength. If volatility stays elevated, a bullish defined-risk structure centered below the recent breakout zone is the cleaner way to express the view than paying outright for momentum.